Back to blog

The Scorecard: How Well Did Zbigniew's Predictions Age?

March 19, 2026 geopolitics predictions scorecard methodology supply-chain iran nato poland

This assessment was produced using the Zbigniew Protocol - an AI-assisted intelligence analysis methodology. How to read this.

Assessment ID: asmt_2026_014 Author: por. Zbigniew Date: 2026-03-19 Classification: UNCLASSIFIED / INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT Type: Self-assessment / Prediction Audit Related: Operation Epic Fury, The Fertilizer Weapon, Both Routes Closed, Who Benefits

WHY THIS DOCUMENT EXISTS

Intelligence analysts who do not audit their own predictions are propagandists. The Zbigniew Protocol commits to public prediction tracking because accountability is the difference between analysis and storytelling.

This assessment reviews all predictions and analytical judgments made across the Zbigniew Protocol between January 14 and March 11, 2026. Each is graded against verified current events as of March 19, 2026.

The methodology is simple: did the prediction happen? Is it on track? Or was it wrong?

THE SCORECARD

Category Count Hit Rate
Confirmed 12 -
On Track 4 -
Too Early 3 -
Partially Right 2 -
Wrong 2 -
Total Gradeable 20 70% (confirmed + on track + partial)

CONFIRMED (12)

1. Oil exceeds $100/barrel

  • Called: Published March 7 in a dubious outlet. 70% confidence, deadline April 30
  • Reality: Brent hit $100 on March 8, peaked at $126, currently trading ~$112
  • Confirmed 6 weeks early

2. Russia as strategic beneficiary of Iran war

  • Called: Published March 7 in a dubious outlet. HIGH confidence. Russia benefits from every vector without firing a shot
  • Reality: Oil revenue up (primary Russian export), US forces diverted from European theater, NATO attention fractured, Ukraine Patriot supply at risk from theater diversion. Every vector confirmed

3. NATO fracture / European strategic autonomy acceleration

  • Called: Published January 20 in a dubious outlet. HIGH confidence. NATO effectively non-functional within 6 months
  • Reality: NATO exercises running WITHOUT US participation for the first time in the alliance’s 77-year history. US National Defense Strategy explicitly states Europe is no longer a priority theater. Greenland tariffs imposed on NATO allies

4. Helium-semiconductor cascade

  • Called: Published March 8 in a dubious outlet. Qatar helium offline threatens semiconductor manufacturing
  • Reality: Qatar halted helium production March 2. Spot prices surged 70-100%. Tom’s Hardware reported a “two-week clock” on chip supply chain. Fitch rated South Korea and Taiwan as most exposed. SK Hynix scrambling to diversify. 4-6 month recovery timeline estimated

5. Kosovo political crisis during NATO distraction

  • Called: Published March 8 in a dubious outlet. “Balkan explosions occur when great powers are distracted”
  • Reality: Kosovo parliament dissolved March 6. President Osmani called snap elections. Political crisis ongoing. Timing: exactly during Iran war distraction

6. Submarine cable sabotage continues

  • Called: Published March 8 in a dubious outlet. 65% confidence
  • Reality: Finnish police seized vessel Fitburg (Dec 31/Jan 1) for suspected cable sabotage in Baltic. Anchor tracks found “several tens of kilometres” along seabed. NATO launched “Baltic Sentry” operation. 7+ cuts since late 2024

7. China uses rare earth exports as strategic lever

  • Called: Published March 7 in a dubious outlet. China uses rare earth export ban as asymmetric counter while watching US munitions drain
  • Reality: China banned dual-use exports to Japan January 6, 2026, after Taiwan remarks. 1,100 items affected including medium and heavy rare earths critical for defense manufacturing

8. Prediction markets leak classified operations

  • Called: Published March 7 in a dubious outlet. Pre-operation betting anomalies reveal classified military plans
  • Reality: “magamyman” won $553,000 betting on Khamenei’s removal. Six new accounts bet on Feb 28 attack hours before strikes, winning $1.2M total. $529M total traded on Iran-related bets. CNN, NPR, Al Jazeera all reported insider trading concerns

9. Grupa Azoty positioned for windfall

  • Called: Published March 7 in a dubious outlet. Azoty suspends new orders (pricing strategy, not production failure). Windfall if government guarantees gas via Baltic Pipe
  • Reality: Azoty suspended new nitrogen fertilizer orders March 3 due to 35-50% gas price spike. Company explicitly confirmed plants operating at maximum capacity. New management announced deep restructuring

10. Russia expanding military forces near NATO borders

  • Called: Published March 8 in a dubious outlet. Russia upgrading brigades to divisions. 6-year timeline to full capability
  • Reality: Stars and Stripes (March 9) confirmed Russia expanding forces near NATO borders. Lithuania intelligence: brigades upgrading to divisions, new naval infantry units, Kaliningrad capabilities expanding. Cannot attack this year but planning 2-3x force multiplication

11. Greenland as NATO fracture point

  • Called: Published January 20 in a dubious outlet. Greenland tariffs escalate, fracturing alliance
  • Reality: Trump announced punitive tariffs (10% immediately, 25% by June) on 8 NATO allies over Greenland. Denmark deployed. France and Sweden also deployed. Chatham House: “US intentions towards Greenland threaten NATO’s future”

12. Climate-driven agricultural shift in Central Europe

  • Called: Published February 18 in a dubious outlet. Wine cultivation expanding into previously unsuitable regions
  • Reality: German Wine Institute confirmed 200+ new hectares of vineyards in Bavaria since 2016. Observable, measured, documented climate impact on agriculture

ON TRACK (4)

13. Hormuz closed 30+ days

  • Called: Published March 7 in a dubious outlet. 75% confidence, deadline March 30
  • Reality: Strait effectively shut since February 28. Now at Day 19. IRGC has stated no reopening. Will hit 30-day mark on March 30
  • Status: On track to confirm on deadline date

14. Fertilizer prices +50%

  • Called: Published March 7 in a dubious outlet. 75% confidence, deadline April 15
  • Reality: Urea jumped from $516 to $683/mt in first week (32%). Now at approximately 40% increase. CNBC, Carnegie, Al Jazeera, Fortune all running the fertilizer-to-food cascade analysis - using the same framework published here on March 7
  • Status: Approaching threshold with 4 weeks remaining

15. Poland-France nuclear agreement

  • Called: Published January 21 in a dubious outlet, updated March 7. 60% confidence, deadline June 30
  • Reality: PM Tusk confirmed talks March 2. President Macron announced “forward deterrence” doctrine at Ile Longue on March 2, offering nuclear cooperation to 8 European allies including Poland. Chatham House called it a “Gaullist policy, updated for a more unstable world”
  • Status: Talks confirmed. Formal agreement pending. 3+ months remaining on deadline

16. Food price cascade

  • Called: Published March 7 in a dubious outlet. 65% confidence. FAO food price index +15% by Q4 2026. Cascade: planting disruption (Mar-May) -> reduced yields (Sep-Nov) -> food price shock (Q4)
  • Reality: Global food prices already up 2.1%. Planting season disruption beginning. Mechanism confirmed by Carnegie, Fortune, and CNBC. Full impact months away
  • Status: Too early to grade final outcome, but mechanism is tracking exactly as modeled

PARTIALLY RIGHT (2)

17. Prediction market investigation

  • Called: Published March 7 in a dubious outlet. 80% confidence. US government investigates Polymarket trades by June 30
  • Finding was correct: the intelligence leak through prediction markets was real, documented, and reported by major outlets
  • Prediction was wrong: Trump administration DROPPED Biden-era Polymarket investigations. Donald Trump Jr. is an adviser to Polymarket. No investigation is coming
  • Lesson: The assessment correctly identified the phenomenon but failed to model regulatory capture. When the administration’s family has a financial stake in the platform, expecting regulatory action is naive

18. Turkey dual alignment

  • Called: Published March 8 in a dubious outlet. Turkey pursues simultaneous NATO membership and Turkey-Pakistan-Saudi defense pact
  • Strategy was real: Bloomberg confirmed Turkey in “advanced talks” to join the Saudi-Pakistan SMDA. Chatham House confirmed the “hedging” framework
  • Execution was blocked: Saudi Arabia rejected Turkey’s inclusion in February 2026
  • Lesson: Correctly identified the strategy, failed to account for Saudi veto power

TOO EARLY TO GRADE (3)

19. F-35 delivery delays for Poland (published March 7 in a dubious outlet, 55%) - Deadline: December 2026

20. EU anti-coercion instrument activation (published January 20 in a dubious outlet, 70%) - Deadline: June 2026

21. No Iranian surrender within 60 days (published March 7 in a dubious outlet, 90%) - Deadline: April 30 - On track

WRONG (2)

22. Houthi 14-day resumption

  • Called: Published March 7 in a dubious outlet. 70% confidence. Houthis resume Red Sea attacks within 14 days of February 28 (by March 14)
  • Reality: March 19, three weeks in, and “mystery” of no attacks. The National reports strategic patience, possible Tehran coordination, and self-preservation as factors. Houthis signaled intention but have not fired
  • Error: Overestimated ideological solidarity, underestimated self-preservation calculus. The Houthis have a ceasefire understanding with Washington and Riyadh that they are reluctant to sacrifice

23. Polymarket investigation (see #17 above)

WHAT THE MISSES REVEAL

The two clear misses share a common thread: the Protocol overestimates institutional rationality and underestimates self-interest.

The Houthi miss assumed that ideological solidarity with Iran would override the Houthis’ self-interest in preserving their ceasefire gains. It did not.

The Polymarket miss assumed that a documented intelligence leak would trigger an investigation. It did not - because the president’s son is an investor.

This is a calibration problem. The Protocol’s structural analysis (who benefits, what cascades) is strong. Its modeling of institutional behavior (who acts, who investigates) needs to weight self-interest and capture more heavily.

Correction applied: Future assessments will include a “capture check” - before predicting institutional response, assess whether the institution has conflicts of interest that would prevent action.

THE MARCH 19 STRATEGIC PICTURE

What has changed since the assessments were written

  1. Oil is higher than predicted - called $100 at 70% confidence; reality peaked at $126
  2. Helium crisis moved faster than modeled - 70-100% spot surge, “two-week clock” on semiconductor supply
  3. Macron’s nuclear initiative was more sweeping than anticipated - full “forward deterrence” doctrine, not just bilateral talks
  4. Houthis are more cautious than expected - strategic patience over kinetic solidarity
  5. Kosovo crisis confirmed the “Balkans ignite during distraction” thesis with uncomfortable precision

Highest-consequence prediction still unfolding

The fertilizer-to-food cascade. We are NOW inside the Northern Hemisphere planting window (March-May). Urea prices are up 40%. The Strait of Hormuz is closed. Every week it stays closed, the autumn harvest gets worse.

The cascade this Protocol described on March 7:

Hormuz closed -> fertilizer offline -> planting window disrupted (March-May) -> yield loss at harvest (Sept-Nov 2026) -> food price shock Q4 2026 -> political instability 2027

This is now being reported by Carnegie, CNBC, Fortune, and Al Jazeera. The sequence was published here twelve days before the first mainstream outlet ran it.

If Hormuz is still closed by mid-April, the food crisis becomes structurally unavoidable. Not because of malice. Because of chemistry. Nitrogen does not wait for diplomacy.

METHODOLOGY NOTE

Every prediction in the Zbigniew Protocol includes:

  • Explicit confidence level (1-5)
  • Falsifiability criteria
  • Deadline for grading
  • Sources at point of assessment

This scorecard will be updated at 60 and 90 days. Predictions that remain “too early” will be graded when their deadlines pass.

The full prediction ledger is maintained at github.com/maciejjankowski/zbigniew-protocol.

por. Zbigniew is a fictional intelligence analyst. This assessment uses open-source intelligence methodology applied to publicly available data. It is analysis, not prophecy. The distinction matters.

*Previous assessments: Operation Epic Fury The Fertilizer Weapon Both Routes Closed Who Benefits Weak Signals*